Sri Lanka Votes For 1st Time Since 2022 Crisis; Economy Takes Focus

As Sri Lanka emerges from the severe economic crisis of 2022, voters are heading to the polls for the first time since the turmoil, with economic issues dominating the agenda. The crisis, which resulted in widespread shortages of food and fuel, ultimately led to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fleeing the country. His economic policies, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, are widely blamed for the nation’s plight.

Current President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who stepped in as interim leader following Rajapaksa's ousting, is now seeking re-election. He faces competition from Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).

Voting is set to take place at 13,134 polling stations across Sri Lanka, commencing at 7 am and concluding at 4 pm local time, with vote counting expected to start at 9:30 pm. Out of 39 initial candidates, 38 remain in the race after the passing of independent candidate Idroos Mohamed Ilyas in August.

Wickremesinghe, historically affiliated with the center-right United National Party (UNP), is running as an independent after his party chose another candidate. His campaign slogan, "Puluwan Sri Lanka" or "Sri Lanka Can," emphasizes his role in steering the nation toward economic recovery. While some economic indicators show improvement, including a significant drop in inflation and GDP growth, critics argue that Wickremesinghe is part of the political elite responsible for the crisis. His policies have included cuts to social welfare programs, disproportionately affecting the country’s vulnerable populations.

Dissanayake has gained traction following the crisis, notably for his active involvement in the protest movement. He has openly criticized the USD 2.9 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), arguing that it has exacerbated living costs for ordinary Sri Lankans. His campaign centers on a promise to eliminate corruption, resonating strongly with many voters.

Sajith Premadasa, a prominent candidate and former member of the UNP, leads the SJB and is the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa. He has focused on winning support from the Tamil community, which constitutes 11 per cent of the Buddhist-majority population, and has received backing from the Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK), a key party representing Tamil interests.

Despite the downfall of the Rajapaksa family following the economic crisis, Namal Rajapaksa, the former president’s eldest son, is also contesting. At 38, he is the youngest candidate in the race, although public support for the Rajapaksas has waned significantly.

Notably, this election will see no female candidates on the ballot, despite Sri Lanka's historical significance as the first country to elect a female prime minister in 1960. Polls indicate Dissanayake is leading, with recent surveys showing him at 48 per cent, followed by Premadasa at 25 per cent and Wickremesinghe at 20 per cent. Namal Rajapaksa trails with just 5 per cent.

The Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey and data from Numbers.Ik reveal that economic issues remain paramount for voters, especially given the staggering inflation rates of 70 per cent and a 45 per cent devaluation of the currency that characterized the 2022 crisis. The aftermath of the crisis triggered a massive anti-government uprising, culminating in the storming of the presidential residence and the subsequent exodus of the Rajapaksa family. As Sri Lankans prepare to cast their votes, the outcome will likely hinge on their perceptions of recovery and accountability in the wake of recent hardships.

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