India-Bangladesh Relations Amid BNP Chief Khaleda Zia's Ill Health

India has been a keen observer of the situation as it unfolds in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina’s ouster earlier this year has been an interesting development from India’s point of view. Under Hasina’s Awami League government, the relations between the two countries flourished.

Sheikh Hasina’s resignation as Bangladesh’s longest-serving prime minister and her subsequent exile in India has led to considerable speculation about the future of Dhaka's relationship with New Delhi. Under Hasina's leadership, Bangladesh aligned closely with India, significantly advancing New Delhi’s strategic and geopolitical goals.

The interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, has pledged to conduct fair elections. This has sparked concerns in India about the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) potentially winning. Historically, the BNP has been critical of India, and its resurgence could upset the strategic equilibrium in India’s northeastern region, which borders Bangladesh.

Since India supported Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971, relations with Dhaka have shifted with changes in leadership. The Awami League, under Hasina, and the BNP, led by Khaleda Zia, have been at opposing ends of this spectrum. Hasina's tenure, beginning in 2009, saw a strengthening of ties with India, featuring improved connectivity, security cooperation, and joint economic initiatives.

With Hasina now out of power and the BNP potentially returning, India faces uncertainty regarding its regional strategic interests. The BNP has started using anti-India rhetoric to gain political support and is pushing for Hasina’s extradition, leveraging past grievances. This could strain India's influence and affect its strategic interests in Bangladesh.

An astute observation highlights that in two previous coups in Bangladesh in 1975 and 1990, the BNP benefitted the most. The role of the military was also significant then as it is now. The BNP had boycotted the last elections as Hasina secured her fourth straight term.

Former Bangladesh Prime Minister and BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) Chairperson Khaleda Zia is in hospital again. She was admitted to the Evercare Hospital in the early hours of Thursday, according to local media reports. The 79-year-old was previously treated for 45 days at the same hospital and returned home on August 21.

Zia is not keeping well and with BNP potentially returning to form the government when elections are held by the interim government of Prof Yunus in Bangladesh, it will be interesting to see who becomes the next Prime Minister, and how Dhaka’s relations with New Delhi turn out to be.