Exit Polls Predict Change In Govt In Jharkhand

Jharkhand is poised for a potential shift in governance, with three exit polls on Wednesday suggesting a victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, one exit poll predicted that the incumbent Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance may retain power in the state. 

Elections for the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly were conducted in two phases, with the second phase concluding on Wednesday. According to Chanakya Strategies' exit poll, the BJP-led NDA is expected to secure 45-50 seats, while the JMM-led alliance could win 35-38 seats, with others projected to take 3-5 seats. 

The Peoples Pulse exit poll also indicated a strong showing for the BJP-led alliance, forecasting 44-53 seats, compared to 25-37 for the JMM alliance and 5-9 seats for others. Matrize exit poll similarly projected an NDA victory with 42-47 seats, while estimating 25-30 seats for the JMM-led alliance and 1-4 seats for other parties. 

In contrast, the My Axis poll predicted a majority for the ruling JMM-led alliance, projecting it to win 53 seats. The BJP-led alliance was forecast to secure 25 seats, with others and the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JKLM) expected to win one and two seats, respectively.

The BJP-led alliance in Jharkhand comprises the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), Janata Dal (United), and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). The JMM-led coalition includes the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist).

The second phase of polling across 38 constituencies in 12 districts recorded an estimated voter turnout of 67.59 per cent by 5 pm, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI). Jamtara led with the highest turnout at 76.16 per cent, followed by Pakur at 75.88 per cent and Deoghar at 72.46 per cent. Meanwhile, Bokaro registered the lowest turnout at 60.97 per cent, followed by Dhanbad at 63.39 per cent. 

The state capital Ranchi recorded a voter turnout of 72.01 per cent. Other districts such as Dumka, Giridih, Godda, Hazaribagh, Ramgarh, and Sahebganj saw turnout figures ranging from 64 per cent to 72 per cent.

A total of 528 candidates contested the second phase, including 55 women, one third-gender candidate, and 472 men. Prominent candidates in this phase included Chief Minister Hemant Soren, his wife Kalpana Soren, and sister-in-law Sita Soren, all representing the JMM. From the BJP, key figures included former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi and Leader of Opposition Amar Kumar Bauri. Other notable candidates included Assembly Speaker Ravindra Nath Mahto of the JMM and AJSU Party chief Sudesh Mahto.

The first phase of voting on November 13 covered 43 constituencies. Results for all 81 Assembly seats in Jharkhand, along with Maharashtra Assembly elections and by-polls in various states, will be announced on November 23.