As the clock ticks closer to June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a comprehensive update on the evolving weather patterns across the country. In a statement released today, IMD announced that conditions are ripe for the advancement of the Southwest Monsoon into some parts of the Northeastern states within the next five days.
This forecast comes in association with Cyclonic Storm “Remal” (pronounced as “Re-Mal”), which currently looms over Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal. As of 1430 hours IST on May 27, 2024, the cyclonic storm has been moving sluggishly northwards, maintaining a speed of 05 kmph over the past six hours. Its center is positioned near latitude 23.1°N and longitude 89.2°E, approximately 80 km north-northwest of Mongla (Bangladesh).
The system is anticipated to continue its north-northeastward trajectory, gradually weakening into a Deep Depression by the night of May 27, 2024. Meanwhile, the cyclonic circulation over northeast Assam & its vicinity has exhibited diminishing intensity.
In the broader context of the impending Southwest Monsoon season (June-September 2024), IMD has released a long-range forecast outlook. The forecast indicates that the seasonal rainfall across the country is likely to be 106% of the long-period average (LPA), with above-normal rainfall expected overall.
Specifically, Central India and South Peninsular India are expected to experience rainfall exceeding 106% of LPA, while Northwest India is forecasted to witness normal rainfall. However, below-normal rainfall is anticipated over Northeast India. The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), crucial for rain-fed agriculture, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall.
Furthermore, the monthly outlook for June 2024 suggests normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA) over the country as a whole. Above-normal rainfall is expected over most areas of the South Peninsula and adjoining regions of Central India. Conversely, below-normal rainfall is anticipated over parts of Northern and Eastern Northwest India, Eastern Central India, Northeast India, and Southeastern South Peninsula.
In terms of temperatures, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are predicted for most parts of the country in June. However, normal to below-normal temperatures are expected in many parts of the Southern Peninsular India.
Additionally, IMD highlighted the transition from strong El Niño conditions to weak El Niño conditions, with forecasts indicating a shift towards ENSO-neutral conditions. Furthermore, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail currently, but positive IOD conditions are expected to develop during the monsoon season.
This forecast sets the stage for a dynamic and potentially eventful monsoon season, with implications for agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods across the country. IMD will provide further updates, including the forecast for July rainfall, in the last week of June, ensuring that stakeholders are adequately informed and prepared for the upcoming weather patterns. Stay tuned for more updates as the monsoon unfolds its course across the Indian subcontinent.
