A depression over the Eastcentral Bay of Bengal has been closely monitored as it moves slowly west-northwestward at a speed of 4 kmph. As of 11:30 AM IST on October 22, the depression is located near latitude 15.5° N and longitude 91.0° E, approximately 700 km southeast of Paradip, Odisha, and 750 km south-southeast of Sagar Island, West Bengal.
Meteorological forecasts indicate that this depression is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by October 23, 2024, as it continues to move northwestward.
It is expected to develop into a severe cyclonic storm over the northwest Bay of Bengal by the morning of October 24, with a projected wind speed of 100-110 kmph, gusting up to 120 kmph.
The storm is anticipated to cross the coasts of north Odisha and West Bengal between Puri and Sagar Island during the night of October 24 to the morning of October 25. Importantly, this cyclonic storm is not expected to impact Assam or any other regions of the Northeast.
In terms of rainfall, light to moderate precipitation is expected in the Andaman Islands today, with heavy rainfall of 7-11 cm likely in isolated areas.
On October 23, similar weather is anticipated over the districts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsingpur, Puri, and Khorda in Odisha. By October 24 and 25, heavy to very heavy rainfall, with localized instances of extremely heavy rainfall (≥ 21 cm), is predicted for districts including Baleswar, Mayurbhanj, Kendrapara, Jagatsingpur, Kendujhar, Jajpur, Cuttack, Dhenkanal, Khorda, and Puri. In Gangetic West Bengal, heavy rainfall is expected in districts such as South and North 24 Parganas, East and West Medinipur, Jhargram, Howrah, Hooghly, Kolkata, and Bankura on October 24 and 25.
Warnings have also been issued regarding wind conditions. Squally winds are likely to reach speeds of 40-50 kmph, gusting to 60 kmph today, increasing to 70-90 kmph, gusting to 100 kmph from the evening of October 23 until the morning of October 24. Fishermen have been advised against venturing into the Eastcentral Bay of Bengal from October 22 to 24, and similar warnings apply for adjoining areas of the Westcentral Bay of Bengal on October 23 and 24, as well as the North Bay of Bengal and the coasts of Odisha and West Bengal from October 23 to 25.
The anticipated impacts of this weather system include significant damage to thatched houses and roofs, uprooting of trees, and disruption of power and communication lines. Major damage to roads, especially kutcha roads, and localized flooding in low-lying areas are also expected.
The potential for riverine flooding in certain river catchments has been noted, alongside risks of landslides and mudslides in vulnerable areas. Residents in affected regions are advised to remain indoors, and those in coastal hutments should be moved to safer locations.
The concerned authorities are urged to regulate maritime and tourism activities and monitor surface transportation for any congestion. Moreover, people are advised to stay clear of areas prone to water logging and to avoid vulnerable structures during this time.
