The exit polls conducted on Thursday further supported the belief that the competition in Rajasthan is fierce. These polls differ in their forecasts of the winning party in the important Hindi heartland state, which has a long-standing tradition of not re-electing the current government for nearly three decades.
Although three exit polls projected that the BJP would emerge as the definitive victor, two others indicated that the Congress was leading in the competition to establish the next state government.
The exit poll forecasts indicated that the involvement of smaller parties and independent candidates, collectively referred to as others, could be significant in determining the government formation when the results are declared on December 3. Rajasthan conducted elections on 199 out of 200 assembly seats on November 25.
The state's Congress government, under the leadership of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, implemented a range of popular programs in the run-up to the assembly election to counter the threat posed by the BJP.
Based on the India Today-Axis My India poll, the Congress party is expected to win between 86 and 106 seats in Rajasthan, receiving 42 percent of the votes. Meanwhile, the BJP is projected to secure 80 to 100 seats with 41 percent of the vote. Other parties are predicted to receive seven percent of the votes and win between 9 and 18 seats.
According to a poll conducted by India TV-CNX, the Congress party is predicted to win between 94 and 104 seats with 43 percent of the votes, while the BJP is expected to secure 80 to 90 seats with 42 percent of the vote share. The poll also suggests that the 'others' category is likely to receive 15 percent of the votes and win between 14 and 18 seats.
According to a poll conducted by Times Now-ETG, the Congress party is projected to win 56-72 seats with a vote share of 38.98%. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to secure 108-128 seats with a vote share of 41.88%. Other parties are likely to obtain 13-21 seats, with a significant vote share of 19.14%.
According to the Jan Ki Baat poll, the BJP is projected to win between 100-122 seats with a vote share of 44 percent. The Congress, on the other hand, is expected to secure 62-85 seats with a vote share of 41 percent. The poll also predicts that other parties will receive 15 percent of the votes and around 14-15 seats.
According to the P-Marq poll, the BJP is projected to secure 105-125 seats in Rajasthan, with a vote share of 42.2%. The Congress, on the other hand, is expected to win 69-81 seats with a vote share of 39.7%. The poll also indicates that other parties have a chance to obtain 5-15 seats, with a vote share of 18.1%.
Four other states will also hold counting on December 3 for the polls that took place earlier this month. These polls are important for both the BJP and Congress, as they are held months before the Lok Sabha polls.
Elsewhere, the exit polls conducted on Thursday indicate that the Congress party has a distinct advantage in Chhattisgarh. These polls suggest that the current ruling party in the state is likely to regain power, and the BJP is also expected to put up a strong competition, unlike in the previous elections held in 2018.
Although three surveys predicted a clear victory for the Congress party, differing viewpoints indicated that the party had a possibility of winning. The Congress party participated in the election with Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel as their leader.
As per the ABP C-Voter predictions, the Congress party is expected to secure 41-53 seats in the state, which has a total of 90 seats in the assembly. The exit poll also indicates that the BJP party is likely to obtain 36-48 seats, while the remaining parties may secure 0-4 seats.
The recent India Today-Axis My India survey forecasted that the Congress party is expected to secure 40-50 seats, the BJP is projected to win 36-46 seats, and other parties are likely to obtain 1-5 seats.
The exit poll conducted by Republic TV predicted that the Congress party would secure 44-52 seats, the BJP would secure 34-42 seats, and other parties would secure 0-2 seats.
The India TV-CNX poll forecasted that the Congress party would win between 46 and 56 seats, while the BJP was projected to secure 30 to 40 seats. The poll also estimated that other parties would win between 3 and 5 seats. In the Jan Ki Baat exit poll, the numbers for Congress and BJP were predicted to be between 42 and 53 seats and 34 and 45 seats respectively. The exit poll also anticipated that other parties would win 0 to 3 seats.
According to the P-Marq poll, the Congress party is expected to secure 46-54 seats with 44.6 percent of the votes, while the BJP is projected to win 35-42 seats with 42.9 percent of the votes. Other parties are predicted to obtain 0-2 seats with 12.5 percent of the votes.
According to a survey conducted by Today's Chanakya, it is predicted that the Congress party will secure 57-66 seats in Chhattisgarh, while the BJP is expected to win 33-42 seats. The remaining 0-3 seats are projected to be won by other parties.
Chhattisgarh conducted its elections in two stages on November 7 and 17, and the results, along with those of the other four states, will be announced on December 3.
The exit poll forecasts were announced once voting ended in Telangana, which was the final state to hold elections this month.
In the year 2018, the Congress party emerged victorious in Chhattisgarh by securing 68 seats, while the BJP managed to win 15 seats. The Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J) party was able to secure five seats, and the Bahujan Samaj Party won two seats.
