Census Slated for 2025; Lok Sabha Delimitation Expected in 2028: Reports

The Narendra Modi-led NDA government is gearing up to conduct the long-overdue population census in 2025, with plans to complete it by 2026.

This major nationwide survey, delayed since 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, is expected to shed light on India’s rapidly evolving demographic landscape, especially after UN estimates positioned India as the world’s most populous nation in 2023, overtaking China.

According to reports, this decade’s census will exclude a caste survey, with the focus solely on updating population data. This decision aims to keep census-related criticisms at bay, especially with upcoming state elections in Bihar and other states.

The decision comes amid increasing calls from opposition leaders for a caste census, a demand that has intensified following Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s stance on fair representation for Other Backward Classes (OBCs).

The exclusion of a caste census has reignited opposition criticism. Congress MP Manickam Tagore condemned the Modi government's refusal to conduct a caste survey, tweeting that it reflects a "betrayal of OBC communities," who, he claims, are being denied their rightful representation. “Ignoring the voices demanding justice,” Tagore stated, “Modi is denying our people their due representation because of political arrogance." He urged the BJP’s allies, including the RSS, JDU, and TDP, to take a stand or risk remaining silent on the issue.

The government is devising an extensive plan to deploy a large workforce to complete the census on a tight timeline. Conducting the census digitally for the first time, Union Home Minister Amit Shah confirmed that the survey would be administered through a mobile application, ensuring efficiency and accuracy in data collection.

Upon completing the census, the government will initiate a nationwide delimitation process to redraw Lok Sabha constituency boundaries. This exercise is expected to be completed by 2028, with a key impact on the allocation of parliamentary seats in states based on current population distributions.

Leaders from South Indian states have raised concerns that North Indian states, with higher populations, may gain additional seats, potentially affecting political representation in areas with lower population growth.

Since 1881, India has conducted a census every ten years, with the last survey in 2011 recording a population of 1.21 billion. Delimitation Commissions have been constituted four times in India: 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. Each exercise, while aimed at balancing constituency representation, has sparked debates on regional representation and fair political boundaries.

The last census in 2011 recorded India’s population at 1.21 billion. Uttar Pradesh ranked as the most populous state, followed by Maharashtra, with the least populated state being Sikkim. Bihar held the highest population density, while Arunachal Pradesh had the lowest. Additionally, India’s urban population rose to 31.2%, reflecting a trend of urban migration and growth.

By delaying the 2021 census, the government has shifted India’s census cycle. The recent extension of Mritunjay Kumar Narayan’s term as Registrar General and Census Commissioner until August 2026 signals the government’s intent to pursue the census process with renewed urgency.

With population data in public view by 2026, India is on the brink of significant political restructuring through delimitation, further magnifying the need for accurate population records.

As the NDA government prepares to launch this historic census, it faces both logistical challenges and mounting political scrutiny—particularly regarding the omission of a caste census, a demand that is likely to keep this issue at the forefront of political discourse leading up to the next general election.

Also Read: Rahul Gandhi Vows to Remove 50% Reservation Cap, Push for Caste Census