The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon has officially withdrawn from parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh as of September 23, 2024, slightly later than the normal date of September 17.
This change in weather patterns is linked to embedded upper air cyclonic circulations—one located over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and another over South Coastal Myanmar. These systems have merged, forming a significant cyclonic circulation over Central Bay of Bengal, extending up to 5.8 kilometers above mean sea level and tilting southwestward. As a result, a low-pressure area is expected to develop over Westcentral Bay of Bengal and its vicinity in the next 24 hours.
In the northeastern region, a cyclonic circulation is present over northeast Assam at 1.5 kilometers above mean sea level. Consequently, the IMD has predicted light to moderate rain at several locations across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, and Tripura on Day 1. This pattern is expected to escalate, with moderate rain likely at many places over these states on Days 2 through 4. By Day 5, although moderate rain will still be prevalent, hot and humid weather conditions are forecasted to dominate the region.
Weather warnings indicate that thunderstorms and lightning are anticipated at isolated locations across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura on each of the next five days. Additionally, heavy rain is expected at isolated spots over Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, and Mizoram during this period, with heavy to very heavy rain predicted in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh on Days 3 and 4.
In Guwahati, the weather forecast suggests a partly cloudy sky with a chance of light rain or thundershowers on Day 1. This trend will continue, with generally cloudy skies and intermittent rain or thunderstorms expected over the following days. On Days 6 and 7, rain or thunderstorms are also likely to occur, contributing to the region's changing weather dynamics.
