Will Behali Slip through BJP’s Fingers and Samaguri from Congress’?

Sandipan Talukdar

Will Congress bag a victory in Behali and whether Rakibul Husain’s bastion in Samaguri will be baffled by BJP’s Diplu Ranjan Sarma? BJP’s victory in Samaguri will create history while Congress’s win in Behali will revive the party’s lost ground there. Congress ceased to win the constituency since 2001 till now with a break for the term 2006-2011.

Winning Behali by Congress will reinvigorate the party and more importantly it will ascend Gaurav Gogoi’s stature in the state politics who has already manifested his political skills after winning the Jorhat Lok Sabha seat. On the other hand, BJP bagging the Samaguri seat will bring challenges to Rakibul Husain’s decades-long dominance here. But how are they possible?

Behali: A Dent in BJP’s Base in the Tea Gardens Will Help Congress Significantly

Congress will win Behali if it can play around a combination of factors and tilt them in its favour—consolidating the Assamese voters, consolidating the minority voters, getting Nepali votes as much as it can and most significantly creating a dent in the solid vote base of BJP in the tea gardens. Tea gardens constitute the largest chunk of Behali’s voters followed by Nepalis, Assamese, Minorities, Tribals, Bangalis and Hindi-speaking population.

From our ground visit in different parts of the LAC, we got a hint that Assamese voters are more tilted towards choosing Jayant Borah, the Congress candidate while the Bengalis and the Hindi speakers appeared vocal in their support to BJP. The Nepali voters seemed difficult to judge when contacted. But their enthusiastic presence in BJP’s gathering gives a hint about who they support. Significantly, we got a feel that a section of tea garden voters may have a changed opinion this time, but it is yet to be seen what fraction of them cuddle the idea of change.

On the 10^th of November, we could witness rallies and gatherings by three main contenders—Congress, BJP and CPI(ML). The rally and gathering by CPI(ML) at Borgang was also attended by Lurinjyoti Gogoi, president of AJP, leaders of Raijor Dal and CPI(M) the constituent parties of the ASOM. The rally participants were mainly from the Tea-tribes. This, according to observers there, is support for Lakhikanta Kurmi, a CPI(ML) candidate who belongs to the Tea-tribes community. Moreover, the party has a long history of struggle in the tea gardens focused on the chronic exploitation of the tea garden workers, for an increase in their daily wage, better health and education. The party’s core base is also in the tea gardens. The CPI(ML) rally was attended by thousands of supporters.  

On the same day, we witnessed two election meetings by Congress, one at Thanbehali and the other at Rotuwa. Thanbehali is an Assamese-dominated locality and Congress’s meeting there with Jayanta Borah, Gaurav Gogoi, Bhupen Borah, Debabrat Saikia and other leaders saw the presence of people from various communities. Over a thousand participated in the meeting. Speaking to some locals around the locality, it was easily perceivable that Assamese voters are more comfortable with Jayanta Borah to vote for.

Congress’s other meeting at Rotuwa, in the tea garden area saw the presence of little less than a thousand supporters. While we spoke to some of the participants of the election meeting, they said that the nearby area of Mahalibasti (a tea tribe-dominated locality) is going to vote for Congress this time.

“We voted BJP and Ranjit Dutta for years but did receive very little at our hands. We are struggling to run our houses with the skyrocketing prices of essential commodities while our wages are not increased at par”—said one of the locals to us.

On 10^th November itself, we could also observe a meeting of Sarbananda Sonowal at Bogolimari. With a presence of nearly 3000 participants, the meeting was discernibly attended by Nepali supporters. However, Assamese, Tribals including Karbis and Bodos, people belonging to Tea tribes were also seen in significant proportions.

One of the participants told us that the Nepali community will undoubtedly support the BJP. It is worth mentioning here that CM Himanta Biswa Sarma announced several perks in his campaign meeting at Behali with the prominent one of setting up a statue of Chabilal Upadhyaya in Guwahati. Can’t it be read that it reflects BJP’s strategy of not losing the solid support of Nepalis in Assam as well as in Behali?

In the last election in Behali in 2021, Jayant Borah polled around 23,000 votes as an independent candidate while CPI(ML)’s Bibek Das polled around 21000 votes as the joint opposition candidate. Ranjit Dutta swept it with over 53,000 votes. This shows that Borah has a support base of his own. Combining it with the votes of Congress will boost his share. However, CPI(ML)’s own vote base will get cut off from the Congress tally. Moreover, it is not so clear that Minority votes will be consolidated fully in Congress’s favour.

In summary, Congress is likely to get the support of the Assamese voters in Behali along with the Minorities and some Nepali votes. If they can pull around 25% votes from the tea gardens in addition to its existing base it will stand a fair chance to win Behali. Jayanta Borah has to ensure that his own supporters remain fettered. Otherwise, the seat will remain in the BJP’s account once again.

Samaguri: How Much Minority Votes BJP Pulls, Will Determine the Result

Samaguri is a different case and things are clearer here than in Behali. Keeping aside the violence that erupted there in the past few days, the LAC seems to be more polarized among Hindus and Muslims. Samaguri is impossible to win without getting minority votes as the community dominates here in terms of population.

However, in his significant tenure starting from 2001, Rakibul Husain enjoyed the support of the Assamese and other Hindu communities as well. This time, this does not seem to be the case.

Travelling from Guwahati through Samaguri the areas on the right-hand side of the National Highway are Hindu-dominated which include Assamese, Tribals, Bengalis as well as Tea Tribes, while on the left hand, the areas are overwhelmingly minority dominated.

This election will see a consolidation of Hindu votes in the BJP’s favour. But that is not enough for the saffron party to register its victory. It will need minority votes and its ally AGP appears to be the main saviour for this. It may work this time. AGP has had a presence in Samaguri for quite some time. Remember, AGP had Atul Sharma as the MLA from Samaguri in 1996.

This time, congress leaders and workers joined AGP soon after Rakibul won from Dhubri Lok Sabha seat and when the murmuring about giving the MLA ticket to his son Tanzil got louder. Disenchanted, several congress leaders including the block president resigned from the party with some joining AGP and the other choosing BJP. This time, they are likely to vote for BJP.

On 11^th November, the last day of the campaign, we witnessed Congress’s car rally where tempos, pick-up vans, trucks and individual cars kept on pouring in for about an hour. Although counting the exact number of cars couldn’t be done, it should be around 500. The participants are likely to be around 4000. On the other hand, BJP was seen with people rallying at Panchayat levels.

Visiting the Udmari tea garden gave us a different picture than Behali. The workers there told us that whoever has come to their rescue will be voted without naming any party or candidate. But their choice becomes clear when they said—“It was Jitu Goswami who came to rescue us when the tea garden was on the verge of closure. He now runs it and we get the wages.” Jitu Goswami is the BJP MLA from Bahrampur, the constituency where Prafulla Mahanta won for 25 years continuously.

If we consider the last election result (2021), it shows that Rakibul polled over 80,000 votes while Anil Saikia of BJP could manage 55,000 votes. If the BJP can pull around 20,000 minority votes (or more) in its favour then we can think of a different picture.

However, the possibility of change in  decision at the last moment cannot be dined. As one local said to us—“We have voted for Congress for years. No matter if some of the minorities have joined AGP and BJP when it comes to voting they will choose Congress”.