Key Takeaways From This BTC Election—From UPPL-BJP Debacle to Congress Mistakes

So Hagrama Mohilary is back, but with a bang. With all his rhetorical statements in his signature style the man who had been in the leadership of BTC has come back again after a gap of five years. Notably, both UPPL and BJP have suffered losses despite extensive campaigns including none other than CM Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma. Not to mention that Congress has been dusted. 

The landslide victory that BPF has secured is something to strictly analyse in the circumstances where the CM declared many times that BTR will be won by BJP this time. What went wrong and what favoured the BPF?

BPF Got Support From Across The Communities

This is BPF’s defining success and probably the reason that brought it the landslide victory—28 seats out of 40. 
Analyzing the seats won by the BPF it becomes apparent that the party registered victories in many constituencies with Bodos as the majority—Soraibil, kachugaon, Dotma (where UPPL chief Pramod Boro was defeated), Banargaon, Debargaon, Chirang, Nichima, Khwirwbari Harisinga, Bhairabkunda, Salakati, Baokhungri to name some of the few. This is a clear indication that the Bodos in BTR found more favourable than other parties. 

Not only that, the BPF became the victor in seats reserved for non STs as well as open seats. In the ‘open’ category seats anyone can contest, whereas the non ST seats are essentially  meant for non tribals. BPF won Fakiragram, Nonwi Serfang and Pasnwi Serfang seats reserved for non ST candidates wherein it won Dihira and Mathanguri under the ‘open’ category. 

On the other hand, BPF could also registered victories in constituencies with mixed demographic patterns—with Bodos, Assamese, Adivasis, Bengali Speakers, Muslims etc. 

It’s worth mentioning that UPPL could also bag Bodo dominated constituencies like Chirang Duar (Where BPF chief Hagrama Mohilary was defeated by Kampa Bargyary of UPPL), Mushalpur, Bhergaon. 

Why?

UPPL was mired in allegation of widescale corruptions, be it distributing beneficiary schemes or giving other opportunities. The party that led the BTC for the past five years with support from Assam’s ruling BJP, couldn’t come out of it that fuelled anti-incumbency across the communities. 

However, it needs to recognize that even intricate and subtle factors worked against the ruling party of BTC. The party leaders were also seen to have declared that those living in BTR would require documents from 1947 or earlier to get land ownership, which was an obvious cause of concern for many communities. 

On the other hand, Hagrama Mohilary was clear in this aspect. He said that those who have been residing in BTR till the coming of effect of the BTC accord (February 2003) are bonafied for getting the land rights, that sounded like a safety valve for those who feared UPPL’s policy. 

The BJP appeared hammering its ally UPPL in the campaigns, where CM Sarma tried to woo the voters by saying multiple times that the beneficiary schemes don’t reach those who are really eligible, only due to UPPL’s faulty and corrupt style of running the BTC. He added that if BJP forms the government in BTR, then it would be triple engine government—at centre, state and BTR.

Can’t we think that the reason behind CM’s boisterous declaration of BJP forming the BTR government is the belief that disenchanted by UPPL, voters would choose BJP by such campaigns? 

Did BJP Oppose UPPL In Reality?

Well, Prabeen Baro, the vice-president of UPPL and a key person in BPF’s strategy for this election has a different opinion. He said, “Their alliance is still intact. BJP didn’t field any candidate in the Debargaon seat not to make Hagrama Mohilary the winner, but to help the UPPL. It helped UPPL in reality, which went in vein.”

Adding he said—“BJP didn’t field a candidate in the Goibari seat to make Pramod Boro the winner. They know that without BJP’s support UPPL couldn’t have won some seats, for example the Srirampur.”

Baro also added that BJP’s main target is 2026 election. “BTR has 15 assembly seats and our CM strategize for it. That’s the reason he said that BJP hasn’t opposed BPF.” 

There Are Something More!

Anti-incumbency towards UPPL and BJP’s efforts to capitalize it didn’t favour both, but the BPF, particularly in consolidating the Bodo votes. 

Here comes the BTC and the BTR accords. The BTR accord was signed in 2020 with many promises including 1500 crore package that provided UPPL and BJP the leverages. The BTC accord was signed in 2003 with Mr. Mohilary as a signatory. 

The lofty promises in BTR accord appeared gimmicks for the people of the region, especially the Bodo people. In addition, some comments from BJP leaders were sufficient for the apprehension of the Bodo people, like BJP state president Dilip Saikia’s comment on tribl belt & block and 6th schedule and CM’s comments targeting the VCDCs. 

“The Bodo people became cautious for these. 6th schedule was earned by long and bloody struggle of many years and the VCDCs were confirmed in the BTC accord. Moreover, 16 departments that were under the ambit of BTC government under the BTC accord were returned to the state government during the BJP-UPPL rule. The BTC accord was favourable for the people, the BTR accord didn’t deliver anything meaningful”—Prabeen Baro commented adding—“In many VCDCs, chairmen are from BJP, but our CM didn’t mention it. Rather he wanted to nullify it. These compelled the Bodo people to rethink and they chose BPF as they want a party at BTC who doesn’t look for Delhi and Dispur for every decision.”

The Congress Mistake

Although Congress is nowhere in the count, there are some discernible mistakes that the main opposition party of Assam made during the election. 

It didn’t appear to have tried for an alliance with BPF, neither did it portray a friendly gesture. Congress had candidates for all the seats.

During the campaigns, the Congress was seen in keeping UPPL, BJP and BPF in the same line of its attack. Sometimes it termed BPF as a hidden ally of BJP. Congress could have maintained a distance from direct outlashing of BPF, opening a possibility of tie up for the 2026 assembly election.

Also Read: BTR Polls: Gaurav Gogoi Thanks Congress Workers, Calls Result a Rejection of BJP