Indian Equities Selloff as Caution Grows Amid Geopolitical Risks

The Indian market witnessed heavy round of selling today with benchmark NIFTY and SENSEX slide over 2% lead by geo-political tension and fresh guidelines from SEBI on F&O.

The Indian market has fear of further liquidation with fresh concerns such as rise in Crude oil prices, possible supply side pressure on inflation, soft-landing of the US and global economy, FII outflow from Indian to China post Chinese stimulus and yen carry trade unwinding leading to liquidity tightening.

The benchmark NIFTY index settled near 25250 area after a previous session’s close of around 25800. In nifty 50 companies, 48 stocks declined while only 2 stocks advanced marginally. Last week the large cap index made ATH of 26250+ while we cautioned longs tracking divergence across market.

In NIFTY 500 boarder index, there was only 48 advances and 452 declines. The Indian VIX rose over 12% on Thursday signalling a broader fear across the market.

The NIFTY midcap select index witnessed sharp decline on Thursday. As we discussed the index failed to sustain above 13200-230 range and slide below 12900 and settled at 12976, down over 2.4% since its previous close. In the index, there was only 2 advances and 23 declines.

Almost all sectoral indices saw deep cuts today with NIFTY realty index slide over 4%. Bank nifty dropped 2.04%, Auto dropped 2.88% and NIFTY IT slide 1.58%. Pharma slide less with NIFTY pharma dropped only 0.5%.

FII has been net sellers since few sessions and sold around 15234 cr of equities during the second trading day of October while DII were net buyers.

In commodities, Crude oil futures at CME rose above 73$ per bbl on geo political concern and set to advance towards $75 mark very soon.

Corporate and Economic Development

Kumar Infra receives letter of acceptance for project worth ₹1,847 cr from MMRDA

Bajaj Finance results for Q2 showed, AUM was up 29% at ₹3.74 lk cr vs ₹2.90 lk cr Deposits book was up 21% at ₹66,100 cr vs ₹54,821 cr

Reliance Power is to raise $500 million unsecured foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) at 5% p.a. interest, 10 years long tenured.

Indian Union Cabinet has approved 2 farm sector schemes, PM Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana & Krishonnati Yojana, worth ₹1.01 lakh cr and is going to allow flexibility to state govts on implementation of farm schemes

Mahindra Last Mile Mobility Launches Mahindra ‘ZEO’ (Zero Emission Option) 4W SCV Starting From ₹7.52 Lakh

U.S. September ISM services PMI read at 54.9 vs estimate of 51.3 U.S. And the September ISM services business activity at 59.9 vs estimate of 53.

ITD Cementation bags order worth ₹1,937 cr in Uttar Pradesh

Market Outlook Index

As already advised yesterday, one should be careful in stock picking at this moment with geo-political risks are high.

NIFTY: The index has a strong support around 25050-100 zone which is 50 days EMA mark, 50% fibo retracement area of 23895-26276 impulse and 23.6% retracement of rally from India’s general election result day low to ATH. The area is also previous swing high made during July 2024. Hence the support may try to provide some relief to push for a recovery towards 25400-450 range.

BANK NIFTY:The bank has important support at 51700 levels and below that it shall be vulnerable towards its next trendline support at 51350-300 range. The immediate resistance is seen at 52000 levels and if market manages to sustain above it then we can expect a pullback towards 52300-350 levels.

NIFTY MIDCAP Select Index:Thursdays low area of 12880-890 is an important support and prices break and sustain below that, a slide possible towards 12600 mark. The intraday resistance is seen at 13000-13050 levels where one can expect some pressure for any pullback rally.

Data Calendar

The report is being prepared by Bitupan Majumdar, an independent SEBI registered research analyst with registration code INH30006962. Please consult your financial advisor before taking investment decision.

Also Read: A Sell-Off Likely in Indian Markets Today, VIX May Turn High