By Mrinal Talukdar
As India approaches the pivotal 2024 general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is eyeing a landmark achievement: securing a vote share of 51% both nationwide and specifically in Assam.
This objective is not merely about electoral victory; it's about solidifying their hegemony and showcasing majority Indian electorate’s support to the world.
This strategic aim is set against a historical context of the BJP's ascending trajectory in Assam and across the country since 2014, a period marked by their adept navigation through a fragmented political opposition. It's a narrative of division they are keen to transcend.
The stakes for 2024 transcend the conventional goals of attaining a majority and establishing a government for a third consecutive term. For the BJP, it's about attaining a level of support that not only underscores their political dominance but also garners international regard.
In pursuit of this ambitious target, the party is prepared to employ a wide range of strategies, spanning the spectrum from commendable governance initiatives to the controversial use of electoral bonds, and even the strategic weakening of opposition forces well ahead of election day.
This quest for a decisive majority is driven by a vision that has been at the heart of the party's ethos since the inception of its ideological progenitor, the RashtriyaSwayamsevak Sangh (RSS), in 1925.
Reflecting on 2019: A Snapshot of the Electoral Landscape
The 2019 general elections offer a revealing snapshot of the political scenario in India and Assam. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, garnered 44.6% of the vote share in Assam, with the BJP alone accounting for 36.3% and its ally, the AsomGanaParishad (AGP), bringing in 8.3%.
This contrasted with the Indian National Congress (INC), which secured 35.7% of the votes, demonstrating a competitive but fragmented opposition landscape. Other parties like the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), independents (IND), and the Bodoland Peoples Front (BOPF) also had significant, though lesser, shares of the vote, highlighting the multiplicity of voices and choices in the Assam electorate.
The Ambition for 2024: A Majority Milestone
For the BJP, the upcoming elections are not just another electoral battle but a quest to achieve a symbolic and strategic majority. Achieving 51% of the vote share nationally and in Assam is seen as a testament to the party's popularity and acceptance among the wider electorate.
This ambition is underpinned by the belief that the political landscape has evolved in the party's favor, especially considering the perceived decline of the Congress as a formidable opposition.
The BJP's strategy includes absorbing politicians from various parties, irrespective of their political weight or popularity, indicating a focus on expanding its base and ensuring a broad-based support system and achieving the perception of having support of every second Indians.
The Strategy and Its Implications
The BJP's aggressive induction of politicians from other parties, including those considered marginal within their original political contexts, is a clear indication of its strategy to consolidate its position.
Figures like Dwijen Sarma and Sailen Bora, who might struggle to secure even familial votes independently, are being brought into the fold, highlighting the BJP's intent to leave no stone unturned in its quest for a majority. This approach underscores a shift from prioritizing seat wins to achieving a vote share that would mark an unequivocal electoral triumph.
The drive towards a 51% vote share is not merely a numeric goal but a symbol of political dominance and acceptance. It reflects a desire to move beyond the fragmentation and division of votes that have characterized previous victories and to establish a mandate that is both broad-based and deep-rooted. For the BJP, failing to achieve this milestone could be perceived as a setback, despite the party's stronghold on power, as it would suggest a limit to its expansion and acceptance.
Challenges and Considerations
Amidst a rapidly evolving political landscape, marked by shifting alliances, the emergence of new political narratives, and the dynamic preferences of voters, the BJP's goal of securing a 51% vote share nationally, and particularly in Assam, appears ambitious yet attainable.
The current political milieu, with its complexities and challenges, might seem daunting, but it also presents opportunities for a party equipped with a strong leadership and an effective electoral machinery.
The popularity of figures like Narendra Modi and Dr. Himanta Biswa Sarma, renowned for their strong leadership qualities, coupled with the BJP's formidable election campaign infrastructure, sets the stage for a potentially successful electoral outcome. These advantages are significant when contrasted with the opposition's relatively weaker organizational structure and leadership challenges.
Although the electoral battle spans 14 Lok Sabha constituencies in Assam, the focal points of intense competition are expected to be Jorhat, Nagaon, and Karimganj.
While social media may stir the pot in Dibrugarh and Guwahati, creating a semblance of contestation, the prevailing sentiment suggests that these efforts might not translate into substantial challenges for the BJP. The party's deep-rooted connection with the electorate, cultivated over years of engagement and governance, positions it strongly in the minds of the voters.
In its relentless pursuit to maintain and even exceed a 51% vote share in Assam, the BJP is channeling considerable efforts and resources. This strategy, however, introduces the challenge of integrating a diverse array of political personalities into its fold without compromising the party's core identity and overarching agenda.
The delicate balance between broadening its base through political inclusivity and staying true to its foundational ideologies and commitments is critical. The quest for numerical superiority must not lead to a dilution of the party's message or estrange its dedicated base.
As the 2024 general elections draw near, the BJP's objective of achieving a 51% vote share transcends the realm of mere political aspiration; it embodies a declaration of the party's intent to usher in an era of unparalleled dominance in Indian politics. This goal, if realized, would not only solidify the BJP's standing but also signal a transformative shift in the nation's political culture, moving from an era of divided electorates to one of decisive mandates.
Nonetheless, navigating the path to this ambitious milestone entails overcoming substantial hurdles. It demands a sophisticated understanding of the silent electorate's changing mindset, a comprehensive and adaptable strategy that goes beyond simple vote-counting exercises, and an unwavering dedication to governance that genuinely aligns with the diverse needs and aspirations of India's populace.
The journey is complex and filled with potential pitfalls, yet it is also ripe with the possibility of redefining the contours of Indian democracy.
